I te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2026, i hoki mai te taupū ota kaweake kōtaha konumohe o Haina mō ngā marama e toru karapīpiti, ka huri i te ia puhoi o te hauwhā tuatahi. E ai ki ngā raraunga mai i te China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, mai i Hanuere ki Mei 2026, ko te nui o te kaweake o ngā kōtaha konumohe i Haina tata ki te 980000 tana, he pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 8.5%. Ko te nui o te kaweake tata ki te 4.2 piriona tāra US, he pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 12.3%. Ko te pikinga matua i ahu mai i te mākete o Āhia ki te Tonga-Rawhiti me te mekameka tuku waka hiko o Amerika Te Raki, e whai wāhi ana ki te 72% o te pikinga kaweake.
Te Whakaterenga Hanganga o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti: Pou Tipu Hou mō ngā Kaweake Kōtaha Konumohe
E matapaetia ana ka eke te tauine haumi hanganga o te Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ki te 210 piriona tāra US i te tau 2026, he pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 15%. Kua tae te hanganga o te tāone matua hou o Indonesia, a Nusantara, ki tētahi wā tino rongonui, me te tono nui mō ngā pakitara ārai, ngā tatau me ngā matapihi e kai ana i te konumohe, me ngā whakaurunga kawe waka. Kua tere ake te tāutanga o Vietnam me Thailand i ā rātou taputapu photovoltaic, me te pikinga o ngā ota kaweake mō ngā kōtaha konumohe e whakamahia ana i roto i ngā anga photovoltaic neke atu i te 40% tau-ki-te-tau. Kei te haere tonu ngā kaupapa kawe tereina i Mareia me Philippines, ā, ko te nui o te hoko o ngā kōtaha konumohe mengā pepa konumohekua tino piki ake. He nui te whakawhirinakitanga o te mākete o Āhia ki te Tonga-Rawhiti ki ngā kōtaha konumohe Hainamana, nā te korenga o te kaha tukatuka konumohe i te rohe hei whakatutuki i ngā hiahia hanganga, ā, he nui ngā painga whakataetae o ngā hua Haina i runga i te whai huatanga utu.
Te tatau whakamuri ki ngā utu waro o te EU: te pēhanga utu tata ki te 80-120 euros mō ia tana
Ka uru te Tikanga Whakatikatika Rohe Waro o te EU (CBAM) ki te wāhanga whakatinanatanga whānui i te tau 2026, ā, ka whakaurua ngā hua konumohe ki te puranga tuatahi o te whānuitanga taake. E ai ki ngā tātaitanga a te Komihana Pākehā, ko te kaha tukunga waro toharite o te konumohe hiko i Haina he tata ki te 14.5 tāne o te CO₂/tāne o te konumohe, he nui ake i te 6 tāne o te CO₂/tāne o te konumohe i hangaia e te konumohe hiko ā-rohe i te EU. I runga i te utu waro o te EU o nāianei o te tata ki te 85 euros/tāne o te CO₂, ko te kaweake i ngā hua konumohe Hainamana ki te EU ka pa ki te utu waro tata ki te 80~120 euros/tāne, he rite ki te tata ki te 620~930 yuan/tāne i roto i te yuan Haina. Mena ka tukuna katoatia tēnei utu, ka tino ngoikore te whakataetae utu o ngā hua konumohe Haina i te mākete Pākehā. Kua tīmata ētahi kaihoko Pākehā ki te tono ki ngā kaiwhakarato kia whakarato i te tiwhikete tapuwae waro hua, ā, kei te mārama haere te utu mō ngā hua konumohe iti-waro.
Ara Whakatairanga Hinonga: Te Whakawhanaketanga Kakariki, te Waro Iti, me te Utu Pai
I te aroaro o te pēhanga utu waro, kei te tere haere ngā umanga tukatuka konumohe ā-rohe i te whakatakotoranga o te kaha whakaputa waro matomato me te waro iti. E whakawhirinaki ana a Yunnan, Sichuan me ētahi atu rohe tonga-uru ki ngā rauemi wai maha hei whakawhanake kaha i ngā kaupapa konumohe wai whakauru. Ka taea te whakaiti i te kaha tukunga waro o te konumohe wai ki raro iho i te 8 tāne o te CO₂/tāne o te konumohe, he iti iho i te 45% neke atu i te konumohe mana wera. Hei tāpiri, kua uru te umanga konumohe hangarua ki tētahi wā matapihi whanaketanga, me te kaha tukunga waro o te 1.5 tāne noa iho o te CO₂ ia tāne o te konumohe, e whakaatu ana i ngā painga waro iti nui. I te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2026, ko te hanga ā-rohe o te konumohe hangarua ka tata ki te 7.8 miriona tāne, he pikinga tau-ki-te-tau o te 11.2%, e 22% o te tapeke o te tuku konumohe. Mō ngā hua utu nui, kei te piki haere tonu te ōwehenga kaweake o ngā hua uara nui tāpiri pērā i te konumohe mō ngā waka mama, te konumohe rererangi, me te pepa konumohe pākahiko hiko, ā, ka āta whakapai ake te hanganga hua kaweake.
Whakataetae ā-Rohe: Te Pēhanga Takirua o te Whakawhanuitanga o te Kaha me te Rerekētanga o te Tono
Kei te whānui haere tonu te kaha tukatuka konumohe ā-rohe. I te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2026, ka tata ki te 1.2 miriona tana ia tau te kaha whakaputa kōtaha konumohe hou, ā, ka neke atu te kaha whakaputa katoa i te 45 miriona tana ia tau, ko te whakamahinga kitea ka tata ki te 42 miriona tana ia tau. Kāore anō kia rerekē te tauira o te kaha nui rawa. Nā te kaha haere o te whakataetae kua piki ake te pēhanga ki ngā utu tukatuka. Kua heke te utu tukatuka mō ngā kōtaha konumohe hanga noa ki te 2500~3000 yuan/tana, he hekenga tata ki te 40% mai i te taumata teitei i te tau 2020. Kei te kaha haere te rerekētanga hua o ngā umanga, ā, kei te piki haere tonu te wāhi mākete o ngā umanga nui me ngā painga waro iti, ngā hua kounga teitei, me te hanganga kiritaki kounga teitei. Kei te pēhia ake te wāhi ora o ngā umanga tukatuka iti me te rahi.
Kua piki ake ngā ota kaweake kōtaha konumohe mō ngā marama e toru karapīpiti, e tohu ana i te whakapainga iti o te tono o waho, ko ngā hanganga o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti me ngā mekameka tuku waka hiko o Amerika Te Raki ngā kaha matua. Engari kei te tata te whakatinanatanga katoa o ngā taripa waro o te EU, ā, ka noho te whakataetae waro-iti hei taurangi matua e whakatau ana i te mutunga o ngā umanga kaweake. Me tere ake te huringa matomato me te waro-iti a ngā umanga tukatuka konumohe ā-rohe, me te whakapai ake i te hanganga hua kaweake, kia kore ai e hinga i roto i te whakataetae o te ao.
Te wā tuku: Hurae-16-2026